GIULIANI TO RUN FOR US PRESIDENCY; THOUGHTS?

[elliott20]

Despite what many people believed, Giulliani is actually not really responsible for the drop in crime. He just happened to be in the hot seat when it happened.

The proof is in the statistics itself. If you look at the drop in crime statistics, the trend started right during 1990-1992, a full 2 years before Giuliani was elected.

This is not to say he was a BAD mayor. He held NYC together marvelously during 9/11. (Hell, I was there when it all happened) And for that, he has proved himself to be competent at handling crisis and administrating under pressure.

[Guest]

bullshit

[elliott20]

bullshit

Okay, tough guy, prove it.

[elliott20]

you know what, here, let me go one step further and post the statistics I have.

Link

take note of the beginning crime drop around 1990-1991. Now note that Giuliani didn't become mayor until 1993.

[elliott20]

that argument would be more convincing if there were, you know, ACTUAL fluctuation. If you read the index number, it shows that from 1990-1993, it's been consistently getting lower and lower each year. Fluctuation would mean the numbers bounce back a little, drop a little, and then bounce back a little more. that's not fluctuation, that's a trend. One that carries through till this very day.

[elliott20]

Yeah, but the example you named were isolated single drops, with an increase afterwards.

from 90-91, a drop.
from 91-92, a drop.
from 92-93, a drop.

That's three drops in row with no break for increase, which makes it a trend.

[elliott20]

my connection is being a total cunt and not letting my reply get posted. I'll keep trying though.

[elliott20]

alright, response is not going through.

I'll post it later when the network eases up.

[Guest]

you do that

[elliott20]

Well, for one thing, the drop in crime happened during the time that there was a nation wide drop in crime as well. You can observe this by looking at the other major cities in the US such as LA, Chicago, etc. So, it is entirely possible that Giuliani was simply riding on a trend that was already on it's way.

[elliott20]

The actual reasoning behind this, depending on who you talk to, will be different.

Some people believe it has to do with the changing demographic. I mean, criminals do age after all. And the new generation, owing it to the economy strengthening during the 90s, did not see as strong a need to turn to crime. We can readily observe that crime is almost always higher in poorer areas. The second thing is that the one industry responsible for the great increase in crime, crack and cocaine, was starting to wane. Apparently, even criminal activities are subject to the laws of supply and demand. When criminal activities become less lucrative, people are less likely to want to go into it.

Those are the main points that people attribute to the drop in crime during the 90s. There are some far more controversial ones. But I'll leave those out for now.

[elliott20]

btw, guest, if you want to disagree with me, at least try to put up some counter points. otherwise, leave the adult talk to the adults.

[Guest]

Well, for one thing, the drop in crime happened during the time that there was a nation wide drop in crime as well. You can observe this by looking at the other major cities in the US such as LA, Chicago, etc. So, it is entirely possible that Giuliani was simply riding on a trend that was already on it's way.

"Entirely possible" doesn't pass muster. The "nation wide drop in crime" was owing in large part to the drastic decrease in New York's crime rate. Giuliani instituted a completely different philosophy of criminology called "Broken Windows," which was developed by two Harvard criminologists. That's what made the difference. Giuliani deserves the credit for staking his political capital on something new that turned out to be effective.

[elliott20]

Well, for one thing, the drop in crime happened during the time that there was a nation wide drop in crime as well. You can observe this by looking at the other major cities in the US such as LA, Chicago, etc. So, it is entirely possible that Giuliani was simply riding on a trend that was already on it's way.

"Entirely possible" doesn't pass muster. The "nation wide drop in crime" was owing in large part to the drastic decrease in New York's crime rate. Giuliani instituted a completely different philosophy of criminology called "Broken Windows," which was developed by two Harvard criminologists. That's what made the difference. Giuliani deserves the credit for staking his political capital on something new that turned out to be effective.

except, like I've stated, the drop trend was happening even prior to his term as mayor. The person who actually DID first institute the broken window policy was NOT Giuliani, but William J. Bratton, who was the head of the Transit Police. He did this in 1990, 3 years prior to Giuliani's term.

[Guest]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fixing_Broken_Windows

Nice article.
Gulliani did have a hand in lowering crime!