UK warned over Brid Flu

The Global Brid Flu Pandemic could become a worldwide disaster, dwarfing the scale of the 1918 spanish flu, which claimed around 40 million lives.

That's if we don't stop it.

Scientists in the US have come up with a computer simulation which shows that even if the virus mutated, it could be stopped in it's tracks if swift, co-ordinated action is taken.

According to the graphs, if the flu is left to spread, it could infect half the worlds population within a year, with a mortality rate of 50%.

But there is a critical three week window, where the outbreak could be limited to less than 150 individuals and extinct within two months.

“If an outbreak occurred tomorrow, it would be devastating,” warns Neil Ferguson from Imperial College London, UK, who led one of the studies. Nature and Science have released the two studies in tandem. The authors stress that an outbreak is no longer an “if” scenario - they are now talking about “when”.

The hardest task is to prevent the diesase from spreading. This should be done through social distancing methods, such as such as closing schools, travel restrictions and even quarantine. Each new case must be isolated and treated within two days. Populations in a radius surrounding the cluster should be treated with antivirals.

There also needs to be good surveillance systems in place at local level, particularly in at-risk countries in south-east Asia, for fast detection of the virus’s emergence and accurate diagnosis.

The WHO has stockpiled of 120,000 courses of the antiviral drug, far too small a supply to halt an outbreak, the studies warn.